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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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